The World Financial Crisis - What is the Solution?

by admin ~ November 12, 2008

By Chris Clare

If you are reading this article because you think I have come up with the ultimate solution to our current global financial crisis, then I am really sorry to disappoint you. I have no idea, only time will tell us the right solution. In this article I am going to explore the current proposals and some of the ideas that have been put about and just cast my humble opinion upon them, so I hope you find it useful nonetheless.

If you did not already know, though I cant think how you could not possibly be aware, the world is in the grips of a global financial crisis of proportions that we have never seen before. Now I can hear some of you saying what about the great crash of 1929? Well yes I am not trying to trivialise that, it was indeed a large issue at the time, but today money is just, well, greater. The sums we are dealing with today can be measured in the hundreds of billions in some cases trillions.

So what is it all about and how did it happen? It is basically about liquidity. By liquidity I mean money in the markets. Money to the economy is like oil to an engine, no money, and the engine will seize and seize it has. Basically lenders globally have been lending money to customers, now I am sure you will have heard the saying a business either grows or it dies well in order for lenders to grow they have to continually lend more and more money. So what happens when all the good clients out there have all the money they want? Well then the lenders lower their standards and then they can lend to more people. The problem is once one lender does this they all have to start or be left behind by the others. Competition dictates that all the lenders then have to start lowering their standards in order to stay in the race.

So how has this caused the problem? The problem with lowering your standards especially to borrowers is you expose yourself as a lender to more risk. There is a reason why some customers can’t or shouldn’t get credit; it is because they might not pay it back. Now normally this is an acceptable risk for lenders to have some borrowers who may not pay their debt back. The problem is over the last decade lenders have lent way too much money to these people and as such they are unable to recover that money back from them.

The result of this is initially other lenders start to lose confidence in them and refuse to lend them money. Now a lender that can’t borrow money itself is useless it is like a bar unable to buy beer for the pumps eventually the customers will leave. A lot of lenders such as banks and building societies also have depositors. People deposit money and in return they receive interest. However the lender uses that money and lends it out to borrowers, the problem is once the lender starts to get into trouble because they are unable to borrow money themselves the depositors also start to lose confidence and they want their money back. This results in a catastrophic failure of the bank itself. If it does get itself into this situation, the stock market starts to get twitchy and they start selling stock in the bank and then the value falls to, again causing a catastrophic situation.

So now that is all clear, what is being proposed?

First a handful of major countries such as the USA the UK and Ireland have started guaranteeing the depositors money with Tax Payers money. This in principle is a very good idea, because a lot of the time it is pure lack of confidence in a bank or institution that can bring on its downfall and as a consequence there may be no substantive reason for its failure at all. Restoring confidence in people’s savings will as a result make them leave their money there and therefore not undermine the banks assets.

Secondly the US and the UK have both proposed major bailout packages the complexities of which I will not be going into here in this article but suffice it to say they are essentially buying into these large financial institutions with large sums of tax payers’ money. Will it work? I don’t know as I said earlier time will decide if any of the ideas are good ones. That said it really does depend on whether the institutions start lending to each other again because the kind of liquidity drought that we are all currently experiencing is dragging the world into what could be the biggest recession we have ever seen.

One thing I can say is we all need to radically change the way the banking system works. I don’t dispute there is a lot of regulation, hey as an independent financial advisor I am subject to it on a daily basis. My concern is I don’t know whether the large financial institutions are actually regulated in the right way. I don’t think anyone has ever turned round to a lender and stipulated what their minimum lending requirements should be, maybe because this would be considered restrictive practice, but lets think for a second if lenders weren’t allowed to lend to such bad risk clients we probably would not have seen the sort of economical growth we have seen over the last ten years and we definitely would not have seen the house price rises we have seen over that same period but the million dollar question is …. Would we be in this mess now? I honestly don’t think so!